Marcela Ibáñez — Authoritarian Aid and Democratic Attitudes: Backlash, Not Diffusion

How does the local presence of an authoritarian power shape citizens' commitment to democracy? Existing theories suggest engagement with authoritarian states should weaken democratic commitment through norm diffusion, accommodation, or authoritarian learning. This paper challenges that expectation by examining Chinese development finance in Latin America. Using geocoded data, it estimates the subnational effect of exposure to Chinese aid on democratic attitudes. Exposure increases support for democracy rather than undermining it. The effect is strongest in authoritarian and weakly democratic settings and absent in consolidated democracies. Exposure does not improve perceptions of China or the United States, casting doubt on soft power or foreign-comparison explanations. Instead, the paper argues that visible Chinese projects make incumbents' authoritarian character more salient, triggering an accountability response. These findings recast authoritarian external influence as a contingent catalyst for democratic reinforcement.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Marcela Ibáñez is a Visiting Postdoctoral Fellow at CDDRL and is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Chair of Political Economy and Development at the University of Zurich. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Mannheim. Her work lies at the intersection of political economy, development, and vulnerability reduction. Her research interests include inequality in low and middle-income economies, sustainability and development programs, equality of opportunity, development and security after peace agreements, and party politics after civil war. Methodologically, she resorts to (quasi) experimental designs, survey designs, and quantitative text analysis.